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Abstract: In the conviction of Lucia de Berk an important role was played by a simplehypergeometric model, used by the expert consulted by the court, which producedvery small probabilities of occurrences of certain numbers of incidents. Wewant to draw attention to the fact that, if we take into account the variationamong nurses in incidents they experience during their shifts, theseprobabilities can become considerably larger. This points to the danger ofusing an oversimplified discrete probability model in these circumstances.



Autor: Richard D. Gill, Piet Groeneboom, Peter de Jong

Fuente: https://arxiv.org/







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