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Abstract: We empirically study the activity patterns of individual blog-posting andfind significant memory effects. The memory coefficient first decays in a powerlaw and then turns to an exponential form. Moreover, the inter-event timedistribution displays a heavy-tailed nature with power-law exponent dependenton the activity. Our findings challenge the priority-queue model that can notreproduce the memory effects or the activity-dependent distributions. We thinkthere is another kind of human activity patterns driven by personal interestsand characterized by strong memory effects. Accordingly, we propose a simplemodel based on temporal preference, which can well reproduce both theheavy-tailed nature and the strong memory effects. This work helps inunderstanding both the temporal regularities and the predictability of humanbehaviors.

Autor: Peng Wang, Tao Zhou, Xiao-Pu Han, Bing-Hong Wang


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