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Editor: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Historia Económica e InstitucionesUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola de Historia Económica

Issued date: 2007-03

Serie-No.: Working papers in Economic History07-07

Keywords: Growth , Current account deficits , Sudden stops , Crises , Institutions , Latin America preindustrial

Rights: Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España

Abstract:In this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crisesand growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the regions GDP percapita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises.I also analyze the determIn this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crisesand growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the regions GDP percapita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises.I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises. The mainconclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience amajor improvement in long run growth in the future. It is possible that somecountries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations. This,however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fallfurther behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations.Not everything, however, is grim. My analysis also suggests that fewer LatinAmerica countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affectedthe region in the past. Latin Americas future will be one of -No crises and verymodest growth-.+-





Author: Edwards, Sebastián

Source: http://e-archivo.uc3m.es


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Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Repositorio institucional e-Archivo http:--e-archivo.uc3m.es Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 2007-03 Crises and growth : a Latin American perspective Edwards, Sebastián http:--hdl.handle.net-10016-664 Descargado de e-Archivo, repositorio institucional de la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid UNIVERSIDAD CARLOS III DE MADRID Working Papers in Economic History March 2007 WP 07-07 Crises and Growth: a Latin American Perspective Sebastián Edwards Abstract In this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crises and growth in Latin America.
I calculate by how much the region’s GDP per capita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises. I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises.
The main conclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience a major improvement in long run growth in the future.
It is possible that some countries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations.
This, however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fall further behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations. Not everything, however, is grim.
My analysis also suggests that fewer Latin America countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affected the region in the past.
Latin America’s future will be one of “No crises and very modest growth.” Keywords: Growth, current account deficits, sudden stops, crises, institutions, Latin America.Preindustrial JEL Classification: N26, O40, F30, F32 Sebastián Edwards: Henry Ford II Professor of International Economics, UCLA, and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research Email: sebastian.edwards@anderson.ucla.edu http:--www.anderson.ucla.edu-faculty-sebastian.edwards- UNIVERSIDAD CARLOS III DE MADRID c- Madrid 126 28903 Getafe (Spain)Te...





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