Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20th century in England and Wales: Possible plateaus in the rate of declineReportar como inadecuado




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BMC Public Health

, 8:148

First Online: 01 May 2008Received: 06 September 2007Accepted: 01 May 2008DOI: 10.1186-1471-2458-8-148

Cite this article as: Allender, S., Scarborough, P., O-Flaherty, M. et al. BMC Public Health 2008 8: 148. doi:10.1186-1471-2458-8-148

Abstract

BackgroundCoronary heart disease CHD rates in England and Wales between 1950 and 2005 were high and reasonably steady until the mid 1970s, when they began to fall. Recent work suggests that the rate of change in some groups has begun to decrease and may be starting to plateau or even reverse.

MethodsData for all deaths between 1931 and 2005 in England and Wales were grouped by year, sex, age at death and contemporaneous ICD code for CHD as cause of death. CHD mortality rates by calendar year and birth cohort were produced for both sexes and rates of change were examined.

ResultsThe pattern of increased burden of CHD mortality within older age groups has only recently emerged in men, whereas it has been established in women for far longer. CHD mortality rates among younger people showed little variation by birth cohort. For younger women 49 and under, the rate of change in CHD mortality has reversed in the last 20 years, indicating a future plateau and possible reversal of previous improvement in CHD mortality rates. Among younger men the rate of change in CHD mortality has been consistent for the past 15 years indicating that rates in this group have continued to fall steadily.

ConclusionAlthough CHD mortality rates continue to drop in older age groups the actual burden of coronary heart disease is increasing due to the ageing of the population. The rate of improvement in CHD mortality appears to be beginning to decline and may even be reversing among younger women.

Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1186-1471-2458-8-148 contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Autor: Steven Allender - Peter Scarborough - Martin O-Flaherty - Simon Capewell

Fuente: https://link.springer.com/







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