Адекватность кривых Хабберта для прогнозирования темпов добычи нефти Report as inadecuate




Адекватность кривых Хабберта для прогнозирования темпов добычи нефти - Download this document for free, or read online. Document in PDF available to download.

Abstract

Our approach is based on the use of the Durbin-Watson statistic and other statistical criteria for the specification of the number of nonlinear summands in the empirical model of M.K. Hubbert. Using alternate criteria, we compare the dynamics of oil extraction over recent years for the USA and Russia. We show that this approach provides a model that is inconsistent with the reserve estimates, and so it cannot be used as an accurate tool for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction.



Item Type: MPRA Paper -

Original Title: Адекватность кривых Хабберта для прогнозирования темпов добычи нефти-

English Title: The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction-

Language: Russian-

Keywords: Hubbert’s curve; Durbin-Watson statistic-

Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q31 - Demand and Supply ; Prices-





Author: Bazhanov, Andrei

Source: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15117/







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