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Abstract: This monograph is an account of the theory of fallible probability and of thedynamics of degrees of belief. It discusses the first order subjective theoryin which first order degrees of belief are expressed by subjectiveprobabilities and are updated by conditionalization Bayes, 1764; Ramsey,1926, gives an improved exposition of the greater part of the author-s theoryof Probability Dynamics Nathan, 2006 which should replace the so-calledProbability Kinematics Jeffrey, 1965, resolves the problem of New Explanationof Old Evidence Jeffrey, 1995, provides a Theory of Confirmation, and refutesthe Principle of Reflection Van Fraassen, 1984.



Autor: Amos Nathan

Fuente: https://arxiv.org/







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