Low-carbon development strategy for the West African electricity system: preliminary assessment using System dynamics approachReportar como inadecuado

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Energy, Sustainability and Society

, 7:11

First Online: 25 April 2017Received: 10 October 2016Accepted: 18 March 2017DOI: 10.1186-s13705-017-0113-4

Cite this article as: Momodu, A.S., Addo, A., Akinbami, JF.K. et al. Energ Sustain Soc 2017 7: 11. doi:10.1186-s13705-017-0113-4


BackgroundPolicy makers seek to understand the trade-offs needed between economic growth and climate change. This provides the context to explore low-carbon development LCD pathways for the West African electricity system.

MethodsThe study relied on both primary and secondary sources to elicit required information. These data were elicited from relevant authorities in the West African electricity system, namely, West African Power Pool and ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority. The objectives were to evaluate the planning processes in the West African Power Pool electricity system vis-a-vis low-carbon development strategy LCDS, develop a System dynamics SD model, and assess the relevance of the developed model to examine the nonlinear relationship between generation adequacy and greenhouse gas emission GHG reduction. The SD model examined the tension between providing adequate supply capacity against reducing emission from the generation technologies in the West Africa electricity system. This model arranged the complexities in the system and established the basic interconnecting structure to conduct the analysis. High leverage points were identified.

ResultsFour high leverage points were identified: capacity factor CF, emission factor EF, time to adjust capacity, and expectation formation. CF and EF improvement increased efficiency in the system. The expectation formation periods were determined at 7.5 years for the base case scenario and 7 years for the low-carbon development option scenario. Time to adjust capacity was located at 21 and 20 years respectively; deduced from the average time, it will take to construct a combined cycle gas power plant 3 years and an allowance of 2 years for delays and its decommissioning time. Between 2011 and 2012, in LCD option scenario, emission of GHG to the atmosphere dropped as generation did but began a steady rise for the simulation period to a value of 6.154 billion tCO2 in 2060.

ConclusionsElectricity Planning-Low-Carbon Development EP-LCD model—with three modules, was developed for assessing WAPP in low carbon economy. High leverage points identified in the model simulation situate three policy options for overcoming poverty and mitigation targets as regards resource mix, investment cost recovery, and technical factors to reduce system’s environmental footprint.

KeywordsLow carbon development Electricity system WAPP Feedback loop Leverage points AbbreviationsABMAgent-based modeling

CCGTCombined cycle gas turbine

CLDCausal loop diagram

COPConference of parties

ECOWASEconomic Community of West Africa States

ECREEEECOWAS centre for renewable energy and energy efficiency

EP-LCDElectricity Planning-Low-Carbon Development

ERERAECOWAS Regional Regulatory Authority

GDPGross Domestic Product

GHGGreenhouse gas

GWhGigawatt hour

INDCsIntended Nationally Determined Contributions

IPCCIntergovernmental Panel for Climate Change

kWhKilowatt hour

LCDSLow-Carbon Development strategy

MVSSMultivariate sensitivity simulation


MYTOMulti-Year Tariff Order

SDSystem dynamics

SFDStock-flow diagram

SSASub-Saharan Africa

UNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

USDUnited State dollars

WAPPWest African Power Pool

Autor: Abiodun Suleiman Momodu - Ahmad Addo - John-Felix Kayode Akinbami - Yacob Mulugetta

Fuente: https://link.springer.com/

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