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Journal Title:



Volume 11, Number 99


Royal Society, The | 2014-10-06, Pages 20140642-20140642

Type of Work:

Article | Final Publisher PDF

Abstract: Individual-based models of infectious disease transmission depend on accurate quantification of fine-scale patterns of human movement. Existing models of movement either pertain to overly coarse scales, simulate some aspects of movement but not others, or were designed specifically for populations in developed countries. Here, we propose a generalizable framework for simulating the locations that an individual visits, time allocation across those locations, and population-level variation therein. As a case study, we fit alternative models for each of five aspects of movement number, distance from home and types of locations visited; frequency and duration of visits to interview data from 157 residents of the city of Iquitos, Peru. Comparison of alternative models showed that location type and distance from home were significant determinants of the locations that individuals visited and how much time they spent there. We also found that for most locations, residents of two neighbourhoods displayed indistinguishable preferences for visiting locations at various distances, despite differing distributions of locations around those neighbourhoods. Finally, simulated patterns of time allocation matched the interview data in a number of ways, suggesting that our framework constitutes a sound basis for simulating fine-scale movement and for investigating factors that influence it.

Subjects: Environmental Sciences - Health Sciences, Epidemiology - Health Sciences, Public Health - Research Funding: This research was funded by a grant from the US National Institutes of Health—National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases NIH-NIAID award no. R01 AI069341-01 to T.W.S. and by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics RAPIDD programme of the Science and Technology Directory, Department of Homeland Security, and Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health.

A.J.G. was partially supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. 0801544 in the Quantitative Spatial Ecology, Evolution and Environment Program at the University of Florida.

A.J.T. was supported by grants from NIH-NIAID U19AI089674 and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1106427 and no. 1032350.

Keywords: Science and Technology - Multidisciplinary Sciences - Science and Technology - Other Topics - activity space - agent-based model - co-location and contact networks - human mobility - simulation - synthetic population - DENGUE VIRUS TRANSMISSION - HUMAN MOBILITY - INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR - AEDES-AEGYPTI - IQUITOS - PERU - PATTERNS - EPIDEMIOLOGY - INFLUENZA - NETWORKS -

Autor: T. Alex Perkins, Andres J. Garcia, Valerie A. Paz-Soldan, Steven T. Stoddard, Robert C. Reiner, Gonzalo Vazquez Prokopec, Donal B



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