Phase of care prevalence for prostate cancer in New South Wales, Australia: A population-based modelling studyReportar como inadecuado

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To develop a method for estimating the future numbers of prostate cancer survivors requiring different levels of care.

Design, setting and participants

Analysis of population-based cancer registry data for prostate cancer cases aged 18–84 years diagnosed in 1996–2007, and a linked dataset with hospital admission data for men with prostate cancer diagnosed during 2005–2007 in New South Wales NSW, Australia.


Cancer registry data 1996–2007 were used to project complete prostate cancer prevalence in NSW, Australia for 2008–2017, and treatment information from hospital records 2005–2007 was used to estimate the inpatient care needs during the first year after diagnosis. The projected complete prevalence was divided into care needs-based groups. We first divided the cohort into two groups based on patient’s age <75 and 75–84 years. The younger cohort was further divided into initial care and monitoring phases. Cause of death data were used as a proxy for patients requiring last year of life prostate cancer care. Finally, episode data were used to estimate the future number of cases with metastatic progression.


Of the estimated total of 60,910 men with a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer in 2017, the largest groups will be older patients 52.0% and younger men who require monitoring 42.5%. If current treatment patterns continue, in the first year post-diagnosis 41% 1380 of patients <75 years will have a radical prostatectomy, and 52.6% 1752 will be likely to have either active surveillance, external beam radiotherapy or androgen deprivation therapy. About 3% will require care for subsequent metastases, and 1288 men with prostate cancer are likely to die from the disease in 2017.


This method extends the application of routinely collected population-based data, and can contribute much to the knowledge of the number of men with prostate cancer and their health care requirements. This could be of significant use in planning future cancer care services and facilities in Australia.

Autor: Xue Qin Yu , Qingwei Luo, David P. Smith, Mark S. Clements, Manish I. Patel, Dianne L. O’Connell



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