Estimation of the Basic Reproductive Ratio for Dengue Fever at the Take-Off Period of Dengue InfectionReportar como inadecuado

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Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine - Volume 2015 2015, Article ID 206131, 14 pages -

Research Article

Departemen Matematika, FMIPA, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia

Jurusan Matematika, FST, Universitas Nusa Cendana, Kupang, Indonesia

Jurusan Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia

Received 22 December 2014; Revised 6 July 2015; Accepted 7 July 2015

Academic Editor: Chung-Min Liao

Copyright © 2015 Jafaruddin et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Estimating the basic reproductive ratio of dengue fever has continued to be an ever-increasing challenge among epidemiologists. In this paper we propose two different constructions to estimate which is derived from a dynamical system of host-vector dengue transmission model. The construction is based on the original assumptionthat in the early states of an epidemic the infected human compartment increases exponentially at the same rate as the infected mosquito compartment previous work. In the firstproposed construction, we modify previous works by assuming that the rates of infectionfor mosquito and human compartments might be different. In the second construction, weadd an improvement by including more realistic conditions in which the dynamics of aninfected human compartments are intervened by the dynamics of an infected mosquito compartment,and vice versa. We apply our construction to the real dengue epidemic data fromSB Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, during the period of outbreak Nov. 25, 2008–Dec. 2012. We also propose two scenarios to determine the take-off rate of infection at the beginningof a dengue epidemic for construction of the estimates of : scenario I from equation of new cases of dengue with respect to time daily and scenario II from equation of new casesof dengue with respect to cumulative number of new cases of dengue. The results show that our firstconstruction of accommodates the take-off rate differences between mosquitoes and humans. Our second construction of the estimation takes into account the presence of infective mosquitoes in the early growth rate of infective humans and vice versa. We conclude that the second approach is more realistic, compared with our first approach and the previous work.

Autor: Jafaruddin, Sapto W. Indratno, Nuning Nuraini, Asep K. Supriatna, and Edy Soewono



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