Les conflits post bipolaires : dynamiques et caractéristiquesReportar como inadecuado




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1 CERI - Centre d-études et de recherches internationales

Abstract : This issue continues the discussion begun by the first issue, concerning -the prolongation of conflicts-, at a more structural level. How will armed conflicts develop in the future ? What is happening now that the East-West confrontation and bipolarity have disappeared ? The logic of the actors, the reasons for prolongation induced by the socialisation of war and the difficulties for armed people to accept returning to a civilian way of life are anlaysed, as well as the new context after bipolarity. The development of recent conflicts can be analysed via three dynamic movements : globalisation, fragmentation, transnationalisation. Globalisation and fragmentation are analysed as two opposite dynamics. Some analysts only see globalisation and speak of unipolarity, others only see fragmentation and speak of - chaos - - southern threat -, or - clash of civilisations -. New theories propose combining globalisation and fragmentation in order to understand the - turbulences - of the present World, but they lack a clear distinction between globalisation, fragmentation and transnationalisation. This last dynamic, is however, not the result of the first two but follows its own logic.

Résumé : Quelles sont les conditions dans lesquelles dorénavant ces conflits se développent ? Que se passe-t-il maintenant que l-affrontement Est-Ouest a quasiment disparu et que la bipolarité n-est plus qu-un souvenir ? Telle est la question qui court en filigrane dans les différents articles composant ce numéro.





Autor: Didier Bigo -

Fuente: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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