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When predicting thoughts and behavior ofother people, we use either the self as the basis for predictions i.e., wesimulate others, or theoretical knowledge i.e., we use knowledge aboutothers. To find out whether the prediction of complex choices is possible weasked participants to predict the choice of a well-known or unknown targetperson in the classic Asian disease framing task, a paradigmatic example of aparadoxical decision. In addition, we collected participants’ self-reports ontheir prediction strategies theory or simulation. People’s choice in aframing task was correctly predicted regardless of familiarity. Althoughfamiliarity influenced reported strategy, correct predictions were presumablybased on simulation, since explicit theoretical knowledge either was irrelevantor non-existent. These findings show that the correct prediction of paradoxicaldecisions by high-level simulation cannot be ruled as an alternative toprediction by theory.


Framing, Rationality, Simulation-Theory, Theory-Theory

Cite this paper

Kühberger, A. and Luger-Bazinger, C. 2016 Predicting Framed Decisions: Simulation or Theory?. Psychology, 7, 941-952. doi: 10.4236-psych.2016.76095.

Autor: Anton Kühberger1, Claudia Luger-Bazinger2



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