THE REDUCTION OF UNCERTAINTY IN MAKING DECISIONS BY EVALUATING THE MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS PERFORMANCE IN ROMANIAReportar como inadecuado




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Economic research - Ekonomska istraživanja, Vol.25 No.2 June 2012. -

The evaluation of macroeocnomic forecasts

performance does not include only the

calculating of some statistical measures,

rather controversial in literature, like root

mean squares error or absolute mean error. In

theory and economic practice, three directions have

been traced regarding the evaluation of forecasts

performance: the analyse of accuracy, bias and

efficiency. Using the forecasted values on medium run

of inflation rate and unemplyment rate through the

period from 2004-2010 in Romania, we get a better degree

of accuracy and a lower efficiency for forecasts made by

National Commission of Forecasting comparing to those

based of Dobrescu model used by Institute of Economic

Forecasting. Following the international tendency, the

forecasts are, in all cases, biased because of difficulties in

precise anticipation of shocks which affect the economy.

Forecasts performance is indestructible related by their

uncertainty, RMSE, the measure of evaluating the

accuracy being used in building forecast intervals based

on historical errors. For forecasted values of inflation rate

published by National Bank of Romania we propose a

new way of building forecast interval in order to take into

account the economic shocks.

forecasts; accuracy; bias; efficiency; forecasts intervals



Autor: MIHAELA BRATU -

Fuente: http://hrcak.srce.hr/



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