Confusion of forecasts and forecasts of confusion in energy sectorReportar como inadecuado

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Nafta : exploration, production, processing, petrochemistry, Vol.61 No.7-8 August 2010. -

By analyzing forecasts of total energy consumption, and particularly oil consumption, in the present crises time the author came to conclusion, partly based on previous analyses of movements in energy consumption, that there is an evident discrepancy between current trends and previous forecasts.

The discrepancy is stemming from slow down in energy consumption on one side, partly resulting from more efficient energy use, instigated for different reasons which are not specifically analyzed here, and economic reasons on the other side, which are very heterogeneous: -overheated demand- led to high energy consumption in previous period, but eventually it paved the way to economic crises, the cause roots of which have not been eliminated and the crises persists, so we cannot expect fast recovery and return of consumption on pre-crises level in the near future.

The author substantiates his thesis with the data in the scope sufficient to prove his statements.

GDP; energy; oil; correlation

Autor: Zlatko Hill - ; DSc



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