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In this paper, we attempt to obtain the exact probability distribution of the debt-to-GDP ratio in T years, assuming that 1 the primary balance is zero and 2 the interest rate and the GDP growth rate are given as exogenous random variables. With this approach, researchers can play the -Deficit Gamble- without conducting a Monte Carlo simulation. Calculating the distribution of the debt-to-GDP ratio would be useful for policy planning.


Deficit Gamble; Government Debt

Cite this paper

K. Tamegawa -Playing the Deficit Gamble Easily,- Theoretical Economics Letters, Vol. 2 No. 2, 2012, pp. 209-211. doi: 10.4236-tel.2012.22037.

Autor: Kenichi Tamegawa



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