State Prediction of Policy-Holder of Basic Endowment Insurance for Urban Employees Based on Markov ChainReportar como inadecuado




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Basic endowment insurance plays an important role in the social insurance system. At present, the researches on basic endowment insurance are mainly qualitative analysis which comes from the commercial actuarial methods dealing with a few affirmatory state changes of policy-holders. And the quantitative researches are relatively few. However, the state changes in social insurance are uncertain. After analysing the policy and the characteristics of basic endowment insurance of China, the paper proposes a novel method to describe the policy-holder’s state of basic endowment insurance for urban employees. The method has the no-after-effect property. Therefore, the Markov chain is adopted to forecast the state change of policy-holders based on the state transition matrix. Finally, experiments are performed based on the real data of one million policy-holders of two different areas. And the experimental result shows the good performance of our method.

KEYWORDS

endowment insurance; social insurance actuarial; Markov chain; forecast

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Autor: Tianyang Lv, Yuhui Qiu, Shaobin Huang, Qi Pang

Fuente: http://www.scirp.org/



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