GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modellingReport as inadecuate

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1 CES - Centre d-économie de la Sorbonne 2 Banque de France 3 PSE - Paris School of Economics

Abstract : This papier formalizes the process of forecasting unbalanced monthly data sets in order to obtain robust nowcasts and forecasts of quarterly GDP growth rate through a semi-parametric modelling. This innovative approach lies on the use on non-parametric methods, based on nearest neighbors and on radial basis function approaches, ti forecast the monthly variables involved in the parametric modelling of GDP using bridge equations. A real-time experience is carried out on Euro area vintage data in order to anticipate, with an advance ranging from six to one months, the GDP flash estimate for the whole zone.

Résumé : Ce papier propose une approche innovante, basée sur des méthodes non-paramétriques, pour prédire en temps réel le produit intérieur brut.

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Keywords : non-parametric models Euro area GDP real-time nowcasting forecasting non-parametric models.

Mots-clés : Zone Euro prévisions PIB méthodes non-paramétriques.

Author: Laurent Ferrara - Dominique Guegan - Patrick Rakotomarolahy -



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