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Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany


Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management, Leipzig University, Grimmaische Straße 12, 04109 Leipzig, Germany


Department of Ecosystem Services and German, Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research iDiv, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH—UFZ; Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany


Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Academic Editor: Vincenzo Torretta

Abstract Driven by the growing awareness of the finite nature of fossil raw materials and the need for sustainable pathways of industrial production, the bio-based economy is expected to expand worldwide. Policy strategies such as the European Union Bioeconomy Strategy and national bioeconomy strategies foster this process. Besides the advantages promised by a transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy, these processes have to cope with significant uncertainties as many influencing factors play a role, such as climate change, technological and economic development, sustainability risks, dynamic consumption patterns and policy and governance issues. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we identify influence factors for the future development of a wood-based bioeconomy in Germany. Four scenarios are generated based on different assumptions about the development of relevant influence factors. We discuss what developments in politics, industry and society have a central impact on shaping alternative futures. As such, the paper provides a knowledge base and orientation for decision makers and practitioners, and contributes to the scientific discussion on how the bioeconomy could develop. We conclude that the wood-based bioeconomy has a certain potential to develop further, if adequate political framework conditions are implemented and meet voter support, if consumers exhibit an enhanced willingness to pay for bio-based products, and if among companies, a chance-oriented advocacy coalition of bioeconomy supporters dominates over proponents of fossil pathways. View Full-Text

Keywords: scenario development; bioeconomy; Germany; uncertainty; renewable resources; wood scenario development; bioeconomy; Germany; uncertainty; renewable resources; wood

Autor: Nina Hagemann 1,* , Erik Gawel 1,2, Alexandra Purkus 1, Nadine Pannicke 1 and Jennifer Hauck 3

Fuente: http://mdpi.com/


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