Modeling Spatial Effect in Residential Burglary: A Case Study from ZG City, ChinaReportar como inadecuado


Modeling Spatial Effect in Residential Burglary: A Case Study from ZG City, China


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1

Center of Integrated Geographic Information Analysis, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

2

Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0131, USA

3

MS GIS Program, University of Redlands, Redlands, CA 30074, USA





*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.



Academic Editor: Wolfgang Kainz

Abstract The relationship between burglary and socio-demographic factors has long been a hot topic in crime research. Spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity are two issues to be addressed in modeling geographic data. When these two issues arise at the same time, it is difficult to model them simultaneously. A cross-comparison of three models is presented in this study to identify which spatial effect should be addressed first in crime analysis. The negative binominal model NB, Bayesian hierarchical model BHM and the geographically weighted Poisson regression model GWPR were implemented based on a three-year residential burglary data set from ZG, China. The modeling result shows that both BHM and GWPR outperform NB as they capture either of the spatial effects. Compared to the NB model, the mean absolute deviation MAD of BHM and GWPR was decreased by 83.71% and 49.39%, the mean squared error MSE of BHM and GWPR was decreased by 97.88% and 77.15%, and the R d 2 of BHM and GWPR was improved by 26.7% and 19.1%, respectively. In comparison with BHM and GWPR, BHM fits the data better with lower MAD, MSE and higher R d 2 . The empirical analysis indicates that the percentage of renter population, percentage of people from other provinces, bus line density, and bus stop density have a significantly positive impact on the number of residential burglaries. The percentage of residents with a bachelor degree or higher, on the other hand, is negatively associated with the number of residential burglaries. View Full-Text

Keywords: residential burglary; spatial autocorrelation; spatial heterogeneity; BHM; GWPR residential burglary; spatial autocorrelation; spatial heterogeneity; BHM; GWPR





Autor: Jianguo Chen 1, Lin Liu 1,2,* , Suhong Zhou 1, Luzi Xiao 1, Guangwen Song 1 and Fang Ren 3

Fuente: http://mdpi.com/



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