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Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G2W1 Canada





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Abstract Human papillomavirus HPV is often transmitted through sexual partnerships. However, many previous HPV transmission models ignore the existence of partnerships by implicitly assuming that each new sexual contact is made with a different person. Here, we develop a simplified pair model—based on the example of HPV—that explicitly includes sexual partnership formation and dissolution. We show that not including partnerships can potentially result in biased projections of HPV prevalence. However, if transmission rates are calibrated to match empirical pre-vaccine HPV prevalence, the projected prevalence under a vaccination program does not vary significantly, regardless of whether partnerships are included. View Full-Text

Keywords: HPV; sexual partnerships; sexually transmitted infection; cervical cancer; public health policy; pair model; transmission model; dynamic model; human papillomavirus; vaccine HPV; sexual partnerships; sexually transmitted infection; cervical cancer; public health policy; pair model; transmission model; dynamic model; human papillomavirus; vaccine





Autor: Heidi Muller and Chris Bauch *

Fuente: http://mdpi.com/



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