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1

Department of Large Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, 1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark

2

Risk Analysis Group, Department for Food Safety & Veterinary Issues, Danish Agriculture & Food Council, Axeltorv 3, Copenhagen, 1609 Denmark





*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.



Abstract The objective was to study how surveillance for bovine tuberculosis bTB could be made more resource-effective in a bTB free country. A stochastic scenario tree model was developed to: 1 evaluate the sensitivity CSe of four surveillance system components SSC i.e., meat inspection of slaughtered domestic cattle, farmed deer and pigs, and tuberculin testing of adult export cattle given that bTB would enter one of these components, 2 estimate the probability of freedom PFree from bTB over time, and 3 evaluate how future alternative programmes based on visual meat inspection would affect the confidence in freedom from bTB at the very low animal-level design prevalence 0.0002% and a low probabilities of introduction 1%. All, except the export cattle component reached a PFree above 96% within five years. The PFree was slightly reduced if surveillance was changed to visual inspection, e.g., PFree was reduced from 96.5% to 94.3% in the cattle component, and from 98.5% to 97.7% in the pig component after 24 years. In conclusion, visual meat inspection of pigs and cattle will only reduce the confidence in freedom from bTB slightly. However, with negligible probability of introduction 0.1% the PFree could be maintained well above 99% in the cattle, pigs and deer components, which highlights the importance of rigid testing and quarantine procedures in trade of livestock. View Full-Text

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis; livestock; meat inspection; risk-based; freedom bovine tuberculosis; livestock; meat inspection; risk-based; freedom





Autor: Francisco Fernando Calvo-Artavia 1,* , Lis Alban 2 and Liza R. Nielsen 1

Fuente: http://mdpi.com/



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