NASA Technical Reports Server NTRS 20150018872: Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian ModelingReportar como inadecuado



 NASA Technical Reports Server NTRS 20150018872: Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling


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Safety of unmanned aerial systems UAS is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict i whether a flight will be stable success or become unstable failure, ii the time-to-failure if unstable, and iii time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.



Autor: NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuente: https://archive.org/







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