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Abstract: We study the effect of migration between coupled populations, or patches, onthe stability properties of multistrain disease dynamics. The epidemic modelused in this work displays a Hopf bifurcation to oscillations in a single wellmixed population. It is shown numerically that migration between twonon-identical patches stabilizes the endemic steady state, delaying the onsetof large amplitude outbreaks and reducing the total number of infections. Thisresult is motivated by analyzing generic Hopf bifurcations with differentfrequencies and with diffusive coupling between them. Stabilization of thesteady state is again seen, indicating that our observation in the fullmultistrain model is based on qualitative characteristics of the dynamicsrather than on details of the disease model.



Autor: Simone Bianco, Leah B. Shaw

Fuente: https://arxiv.org/







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