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Abstract: We study by computer simulation the -Hawkes process- that was proposed in arecent paper by Crane and Sornette Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 105, 156492008 as a plausible model for the dynamics of YouTube video viewing numbers.We test the claims made there that robust identification is possible forclasses of dynamic response following activity bursts. Our simulated timeseriesfor the Hawkes process indeed fall into the different categories predicted byCrane and Sornette. However the Hawkes process gives a much narrower spread ofdecay exponents than the YouTube data, suggesting limits to the universality ofthe Hawkes-based analysis.



Author: Lawrence Mitchell, Michael E. Cates

Source: https://arxiv.org/







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