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1 CNRM-GAME - Groupe d-étude de l-atmosphère météorologique 2 ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Abstract : One approach recently proposed in order to improve the forecast of weather events, such as cyclogenesis, is to increase the number of observations in areas depending on the flow configuration. These areas are obtained using, for example, the sensitivity to initial conditions of a selected predicted cyclone. An alternative or complementary way is proposed here. The idea is to employ such an adjoint sensitivity field as a local structure function within variational data assimilation, 3D-Var in this instance. Away from the sensitive area, observation increments project on the initial fields with the usual climatological or weakly flow-dependent, in the case of 4D-Var structure functions. Within the sensitive area, the gradient fields are projected using all the available data in the zone, conventional or extra, if any. The formulation of the technique is given and the approach is further explained by using a simple 1D scheme. The technique is implemented in the ARPEGE-IFS code and applied to 11 FASTEX Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment cyclone cases, together with the targeted observations performed at the time of the campaign. The new approach is shown to allow for the desired stronger impact of the available observations and to systematically improve the forecasts of the FASTEX cyclones, unlike the standard 3D-Var.





Autor: G. Hello - F. Bouttier -

Fuente: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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