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, Volume 6, Issue 4, pp 489–495

First Online: 25 May 2010Received: 04 March 2010Revised: 06 April 2010Accepted: 06 April 2010


Our ability to predict the effects of climate change on the spread of infectious diseases is in its infancy. Numerous, and in some cases conflicting, predictions have been developed, principally based on models of biological processes or mapping of current and historical disease statistics. Current debates on whether climate change, relative to socioeconomic determinants, will be a major influence on human disease distributions are useful to help identify research needs but are probably artificially polarized. We have at least identified many of the critical geophysical constraints, transport opportunities, biotic requirements for some disease systems, and some of the socioeconomic factors that govern the process of migration and establishment of parasites and pathogens. Furthermore, we are beginning to develop a mechanistic understanding of many of these variables at specific sites. Better predictive understanding will emerge in the coming years from analyses regarding how these variables interact with each other.

KeywordsClimate models disease spread biological models mapping disease socioeconomic conditions prediction  Download fulltext PDF

Autor: Joshua Rosenthal


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