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1 Dept. of Structures

Abstract : In recent years, many new models for earthquake recurrence were proposed. Some are focusing on the clustering properties on a small time scale, while others try to model the long term behavior of large mainshocks. To this last purpose, there is a growing interest for models that take into account the aperiodicity aiming to a time-dependent hazard estimate. It is well known that a limited number of inter-event times IETs may lead to biased values of the distribution parameters. To overcome this problem different solutions were proposed. This paper focuses on two of them: Monte Carlo simulation of the process and aperiodicity estimated via a statistical proxy. The topics discussed are: 1 how many IETs are needed for a correct estimate, 2 to which extent a Poisson distribution is equally able to describe the process, 3 the influence of errors associated to paleoseismological IETs, and 4 the goodness of the success ratio from simulations. A simple test is proposed to discriminate real aperiodicity from apparent aperiodicity coming from undersampling.

Autor: M. Mucciarelli -

Fuente: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/


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