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1 UQAM - Département de mathématiques Montréal

Abstract : In this paper, we investigate questions arising in Parsons & Geist 2012. Pseudo causal models connecting magnitudes and waiting times are consider, through generalized regression. We do use conditional model magnitude given previous waiting time, and conversely as an extension to joint distribution model described in Nikoloulopoulos & Karlis 2008. On the one hand, we fit a Pareto distribution for earthquake magnitudes, where the tail index is a function of waiting time following previous earthquake; on the other hand, waiting times are modeled using a Gamma or a Weibull distribution, where parameters are function of the magnitude of the previous earthquake. We use those two models, alternatively, to generate the dynamics of earthquake occurrence, and to estimate the probability of occurrence of several earthquakes within a year, or a decade.

keyword : duration earthquake Gamma Inverse Gaussian magnitude Pareto regression Weibull

Autor: Arthur Charpentier - Marilou Durand -



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