Rock fall predictibility - A probabilistic approach combining historical and geomechanical studies.Reportar como inadecuado

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* Corresponding author 1 LIRIGM - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche Impliquant la Géologie et la Mécanique

Abstract : Forecasting the date of a rock fall is sometimes possible in the case of monitored moving rock masses. But for most potentially unstable slopes, mechanical methods generally fail to estimate their probability of rupture as a function of time. This limitation arises mainly from ignorance of the temporal evolution of the factors which determine the stability. Nevertheless, natural risk management for land use demands an attempt to quantify rock fall hazards like other natural hazards earthquakes, floods

., for which the probability of occurrence of given intensity as a function of time is estimated. Recent studies show that statistical analysis of historical rock falls permits, under certain conditions, an estimation of the probability of occurrence of a rock fall in a given volume class, during a given period. The HGP method Historical, Geomechanical and Probabilistic associates this estimation of the future rock fall activity on the study zone with a hazard grading of detected potentially unstable rock masses. It is a first step toward the evaluation of the individual probability of rupture of a specific instability, as a function of time. Examples of historical and geomechanical studies are presented and the meaning of the computed probabilities is discussed in terms of a fictious example.

Keywords : Rock fall probability forecast historical study statistics geomechanical study stability

Autor: Jean-Marc Vengeon - Didier Hantz - C. Dussauge -



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