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1 Institute for Transport Planning and Systems 2 Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF-ECP-Supélec LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606, SSEC - Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF-ECP-Supélec

Abstract : In this paper, multilayer feedforward neural networks based on multi-valued neurons MLMVN, a specific type of complex valued neural networks, are proposed to be applied to reliability and degradation prediction problems, formulated as time series. MLMVN have demonstrated their ability to extract complex dynamic patterns from time series data for mid- and long-term predictions in several applications and benchmark studies. To the authors- knowledge, it is the first time that MLMVN are applied for reliability and degradation prediction. MLMVN are applied to a case study of predicting the level of degradation of railway track turnouts using real data. The performance of the algorithms is first evaluated using benchmark study data. The results obtained in the reliability prediction study of the benchmark data show that MLMVN outperform other machine learning algorithms in terms of prediction precision and are also able to perform multi-step ahead predictions, as opposed to the previously best performing benchmark studies which only performed up to two-step ahead predictions. For the railway turnout application, MLMVN confirm the good performance in the long-term prediction of degradation and do not show accumulating errors for multi-step ahead predictions.

Keywords : Neural networks Complex valued neural networks Reliability prediction Level of degradation Railway turnout system





Autor: Olga Fink - Enrico Zio - Ulrich Weidmann -

Fuente: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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