Analysis of the Robustness of Critical Infrastructures Within a Multistate Systems-of-Systems Framework in the Presence of Epistemic UncertaintiesReportar como inadecuado




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1 Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF-ECP-Supélec SSEC - Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF-ECP-Supélec 2 Politecnico di Milano Milan

Abstract : In this paper, we look at the robustness of connected critical infrastructures under a systems-of-systems framework taking into account i the dependencies and interdependencies among the components of a critical infrastructure and between different critical infrastructures, respectively; ii the variability of the performance of each component by means of a multistate model; iii the epistemic uncertainty in the transition probability between different components states by means of probability intervals. We adopt the Goal Tree Success Tree – Dynamic Master Logic Diagram for system modelling and we perform a quantitative assessment of the systems-of-systems performance by Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the approach by way of a simplified case study consisting of two interdependent infrastructures electric power system and a gas network and a supervisory control and data acquisition system connected to the gas network.





Autor: E Ferrario - N Pedroni - E Zio -

Fuente: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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