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* Corresponding author 1 I-CiTy - Innovative CiTy Lab 2 IRSN - Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire 3 JAD - Laboratoire Jean Alexandre Dieudonné 4 IRSN - Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire

Abstract : Global Sensitivity Analysis GSA methods are useful tools to rank input parameters uncertainties regarding their impact on result variability. In practice, such type of approach is still at an exploratory level for studies relying on 2D Shallow Water Equations SWE codes as GSA requires specific tools and deals with important computational capacity. The aim of this paper is to provide both a protocol and a tool to carry out a GSA for 2D hydraulic modelling applications. A coupled tool between Prométhée a parametric computation environment and FullSWOF 2D a code relying on 2D SWE has been set up: Prométhée-FullSWOF 2D P-FS. The main steps of our protocol are: i to identify the 2D hydraulic code input parameters of interest and to assign them a probability density function, ii to propagate uncertainties within the model, and iii to rank the effects of each input parameter on the output of interest. For our study case, simulations of a river flood event were run with uncertainties introduced through three parameters using P-FS tool. Tests were performed on regular computational mesh, spatially discretizing an urban area, using up to 17.9 million of computational points. P-FS tool has been installed on a cluster for computation. Method and P-FS tool successfully allow the computation of Sobol indices maps. Keywords Uncertainty, flood hazard modelling, global sensitivity analysis, 2D shallow water equation, Sobol index. Analyse globale de sensibilité en modélisation hydrauliquè a surface libre 2D : application d-un protocole et développement d-outils opérationnels – Les méthodes d-analyse de sensibilité permettent de contrôler la robustesse des résultats de modélisation ainsi que d-identifier le degré d-influence des param etres d- entrée sur le résultat en sortie d-un mod ele. Le processus complet constitue une analyse globale de sensibilité GSA. Ce type d-approche présente un grand intérêt pour analyser les incer-titudes de résultats de modélisation , mais est toujours a un stade exploratoire dans les etudes appliquées mettant en jeu des codes basés sur la résolution bidimensionnelle des equations de Saint-Venant. En effet, l- implémentation d-une GSA est délicate car elle

Keywords : 2D shallow water equation Sobol index uncertainty flood hazard modelling global sensitivity analysis





Autor: Morgan Abily - Nathalie Bertrand - Olivier Delestre - Philippe Gourbesville - Yann Richet - Claire-Marie Duluc -

Fuente: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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