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1 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis 2 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies 3 SHTI - LATMOS LATMOS - Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales 4 Department of Chemistry Cambridge, UK 5 IPA - DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre 6 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder 7 FMI - Finnish Meteorological Institute 8 Air Quality Research Division Toronto 9 NIWA - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder 10 PMOD-WRC - Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos-World Radiation Center 11 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich 12 MRI - Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba

Abstract : Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable and consistent in models and observations. However, the total ozone response to greenhouse gases in the models and observations appears to be inconsistent, which may be due to the models- inability to properly simulate tropospheric ozone changes. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV-SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.





Autor: N. P. Gillett - H. Akiyoshi - Slimane Bekki - P. Braesicke - V. Eyring - R. Garcia - A. Yu. Karpechko - C. A. Mclinden - Olaf Mor

Fuente: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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