Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis Exist in Pakistan A Fresh look from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks. Reportar como inadecuado




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Abstract

Purpose: The prime objective of this study is to re-investigate the tourism-led growth hypothesis byaccommodating structural breaks over the annual period 1988-2014 for Pakistan. This study used two measure of tourism development -tourist arrivals and tourism expenditure per capita to explore the relationship between tourism and economic growth. Methodology: The unit root problem is tested by applying Ng-Perron unit root test. However, Perron, 1997 single structural break and Clemente et al. 1998 double structural breaks unit root tests also employed. To examine the longrelationship between tourism and economic growth, we applied newly invented Bayer-Hanck, 2013 combine cointegration approach in the presence of structural breaks. The robustness of combine cointegration approach is tested by Johansen cointegration technique. Further, VECM Granger causality is used to understand the direction of causality during structural shocks. Findings: We found all data series stationary at first difference. The empirics confirm the existence of long run relationship between underlying variables in the presence of structural breaks. The results of VECMGranger causality predicted unidirectional causality running from tourism development tourist arrives to economic growth in long run as well as short run when. But, bidirectional relationship between tourism development tourism expenditure and economic growth has found. This validates the tourism-led growth for Pakistan. Recommendations: Policy makers should focus ondevelopment of tourism industry to enhance economic growth for Pakistan.



Item Type: MPRA Paper -

Original Title: Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis Exist in Pakistan? A Fresh look from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks.-

English Title: Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis Exist in Pakistan? A Fresh look from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks.-

Language: English-

Keywords: Tourism, Economic Growth, Structural Breaks, Combine Cointegration, VECM Granger causality, Pakistan.-

Subjects: L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism-





Autor: Ahad, Muhammad

Fuente: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72430/



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