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Chinese Science Bulletin

, Volume 58, Issue 12, pp 1453–1461

First Online: 26 November 2012Received: 01 July 2012Accepted: 12 September 2012DOI: 10.1007-s11434-012-5520-5

Cite this article as: Lang, X. & Sui, Y. Chin. Sci. Bull. 2013 58: 1453. doi:10.1007-s11434-012-5520-5

Abstract

Based on a 153-year 1948–2100 transient simulation of East Asian climate performed by a high resolution regional climate model RegCM3 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SRES A1B scenario, the potential future changes in mean and extreme climates over China in association with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed in this study. Results show that annual temperature rises over the whole of China, with a greater magnitude of around 0.6°C compared to the global mean increase, at the time of a 2°C global warming. Large-scale surface warming gets stronger towards the high latitudes and on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while it is similar in magnitude but somewhat different in spatial pattern between seasons. Annual precipitation increases by 5.2%, and seasonal precipitation increases by 4.2%–8.5% with respect to the 1986–2005 climatology. At the large scale, apart from in boreal winter when precipitation increases in northern China but decreases in southern China, annual and seasonal precipitation increases in western and southeastern China but decreases over the rest of the country. Nationwide extreme warm cold temperature events increase decrease. With respect to the 1986–2005 climatology, the country-averaged annual extreme precipitation events R5d, SDII, R95T, and R10 increase by 5.1 mm, 0.28 mm d, 6.6%, and 0.4 d respectively, and CDD decreases by 0.5 d. There is a large spatial variability in R10 and CDD changes.

Keywords2°C global warming regional climate model mean and extreme climates China projection This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com

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Autor: XianMei Lang - Yue Sui

Fuente: https://link.springer.com/



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