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Mathematical Problems in EngineeringVolume 2013 2013, Article ID 846973, 7 pages

Research ArticleBeijing Jiaotong Vocational Technical College, Deng Zhuang, Changping District, Beijing 102200, China

Received 11 October 2012; Revised 7 February 2013; Accepted 18 February 2013

Academic Editor: Fatih Yaman

Copyright © 2013 Lili Yang. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation CNOP technique is a useful tool for studying the limits of predictability in numerical weather forecasting and climate predictions. The CNOP is the optimal combined mode of the initial and model parameter perturbations that induce the largest departure from a given reference state. The CNOP has two special cases: the CNOP-I is linked to initial perturbations and has the largest nonlinear evolution at the time of prediction, while the other case, CNOP-P, is related to the parameter perturbations that cause the largest departure from a given reference state at a given future time. Solving the CNOPs of a numerical model is a mathematical problem. In this paper, we calculate the CNOP, CNOP-I, and CNOP-P of a coupled Lorenz model and study the properties of these CNOPs. We find that the CNOP, CNOP-I, and CNOP-P always locate the boundary of their respective constraints. This property is also demonstrated analytically for the model whose solutions depend continuously on the initial and parameter perturbations, which provides a theoretical basis for testing the accountability of the numerically computed CNOPs. In addition, we analyze the features of the CNOPs for the coupled Lorenz model and explain their structures.

Autor: Lili Yang



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