Accounting for climate change in a forest planning stochastic optimization modelReport as inadecuate

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An approach is proposed for incorporating the variations in timber growth and yield due to climate change uncertainty into the forest harvesting decision process. A range of possible climate scenarios are transformed by a forest growth and yield model into tree growth scenarios, which in turn are integrated into a multistage stochastic model that determines the timber cut in each future period so as to maximize net present value over the planning horizon. For comparison purposes, a deterministic model using a single average climate scenario is also developed. The performance of the deterministic and stochastic formulations are tested in a case study of a medium-term forest planning problem for a Eucalyptus forest in Portugal where climate change is expected to severely impact production in the coming years. Experiments conducted using 32 climate scenarios demonstrate the stochastic model-s superior results in terms of present value, particularly in cases of relatively high minimum timber demand. The model should therefore be useful in supporting forest planners- decisions under climate uncertainty.Indización

Artículo de publicación ISI

Author: García-Gonzalo, Jordi; - Pais, Cristóbal; - Bachmatiuk, Joanna; - Weintraub Pohorille, Andrés; -



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