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Abstract

This paper examines the use of fuzzy cognitivemaps FCMs as a technique for modeling political andstrategic issues situations and supporting the decisionmaking process in view of an imminent crisis. Its object domain is soft computing using as its basic elementsdifferent methods from the areas of fuzzy logic, cognitivemaps, neural networks and genetic algorithms. FCMs,more specifically, use notions borrowed from artificialintelligence and combine characteristics of both fuzzylogic and neural networks, in the form of dynamicmodels that describe a given political setting. The presentwork proposes the use of the genetically evolvedcertainty neuron fuzzy cognitive map GECNFCM asan extension of certainty neuron fuzzy cognitive mapsCNFCMs aiming at overcoming the main weaknessesof the latter, namely the recalculation of the weightscorresponding to each concept every time a new strategyis adopted. This novel technique combines CNFCMswith genetic algorithms GAs, the advantage of whichlies with their ability to offer the optimal solutionwithout a problem-solving strategy, once the requirementsare defined. Using a multiple scenario analysis wedemonstrate the value of such a hybrid technique in thecontext of a model that reflects the political and strategiccomplexity of the Cyprus issue, as well as the uncertaintiesinvolved in it. The issue has been treated on apurely technical level, with distances carefully keptconcerning all sides involved in it.



Item Type: MPRA Paper -

Original Title: Soft computing for crisis management and political decision making: the use of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps-

English Title: Soft computing for crisis management and political decision making: the use of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps-

Language: English-

Keywords: Neuro-Fuzzy systems Fuzzy cognitivemaps Hybrid modeling Genetic algorithms-

Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C65 - Miscellaneous Mathematical ToolsH - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H56 - National Security and War-





Autor: Andreou, Andreas S.

Fuente: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51325/







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