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BMC Public Health

, 13:507

Environmental health


BackgroundType 2 diabetes mellitus T2DM is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003–2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country’s own data.

MethodsFuture prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older for the period 2003–2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model a discrete-state Markov model.

ResultsAccording to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 from 10% to 21%. The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men 148% than in women 93%. The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55 years especially the 25–34 years age group.

ConclusionsThe future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM.

Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1186-1471-2458-13-507 contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Autor: Radwan Al Ali - Fawaz Mzayek - Samer Rastam - Fouad M Fouad - Martin O’Flaherty - Simon Capewell - Wasim Maziak


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