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Abstract: When a defendant-s DNA matches a sample found at a crime scene, howcompelling is the match? To answer this question, DNA analysts typically userelative frequencies, random-match probabilities or likelihood ratios. Theycompute these quantities for the major racial or ethnic groups in the UnitedStates, supplying prosecutors with such mind-boggling figures as ``one in ninehundred and fifty sextillion African Americans, one in one hundred and thirtyseptillion Caucasians, and one in nine hundred and thirty sextillionHispanics.- In People v. Prince, a California Court of Appeals rejected thispractice on the theory that only the perpetrator-s race is relevant to thecrime; hence, it is impermissible to introduce statistics about other races.This paper critiques this reasoning. Relying on the concept of likelihood, itpresents a logical justification for referring to a range of races andidentifies some problems with the one-race-only rule. The paper also notes someways to express the probative value of a DNA match quantitatively withoutreferring to variations in DNA profile frequencies among races or ethnicgroups.



Autor: David H. Kaye

Fuente: https://arxiv.org/







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