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International Journal of Health Geographics

, 10:25

First Online: 05 April 2011Received: 31 January 2011Accepted: 05 April 2011DOI: 10.1186-1476-072X-10-25

Cite this article as: Wang, J., Guo, YS., Christakos, G. et al. Int J Health Geogr 2011 10: 25. doi:10.1186-1476-072X-10-25

Abstract

BackgroundThe Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease HFMD is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000 ~1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease.

Methods and FindingsHFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 × 11 cells across space-time same as the number of HFMD cases using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy BME method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self-organizing map SOM algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate precipitation types.

ConclusionsHFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.

Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1186-1476-072X-10-25 contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Autor: Jin-feng Wang - Yan-Sha Guo - George Christakos - Wei-Zhong Yang - Yi-Lan Liao - Zhong-Jie LI - Xiao-Zhou LI - Sheng-Jie L

Fuente: https://link.springer.com/







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