Spatial–temporal pattern and risk factor analysis of bacillary dysentery in the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan urban region of ChinaReportar como inadecuado

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BMC Public Health

, 14:998

Infectious Disease epidemiology


BackgroundBacillary dysentery remains a major public health concern in China. The Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan urban region is one of the most heavily infected areas in the country. This study aimed to analyze epidemiological features of bacillary dysentery, detect spatial-temporal clusters of the disease, and analyze risk factors that may affect bacillary dysentery incidence in the region.

MethodsBacillary dysentery case data from January 2011 to December 2011 in Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan were used in this study. The epidemiological features of cases were characterized, then scan statistics were performed to detect spatial temporal clusters of bacillary dysentery. A spatial panel model was used to identify potential risk factors.

ResultsThere were a total of 28,765 cases of bacillary dysentery in 2011. The results of the analysis indicated that compared with other age groups, the highest incidence 473.75-10 occurred in individuals <5 years of age. The incidence in males 530.57-10 was higher compared with females 409.06-10. On a temporal basis, incidence increased rapidly starting in April. Peak incidence occurred in August 571.10-10. Analysis of the spatial distribution model revealed that factors such as population density, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours were positively associated with incidence rate. Per capita gross domestic product was negatively associated with disease incidence.

ConclusionsMeteorological and socio-economic factors have affected the transmission of bacillary dysentery in the urban Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan region of China. The success of bacillary dysentery prevention and control department strategies would benefit from giving more consideration to climate variations and local socio-economic conditions.

KeywordsBacillary dysentery Epidemiologic feature Space-time risk analysis Risk factors Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1186-1471-2458-14-998 contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Gexin Xiao, Chengdong Xu contributed equally to this work.

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Autor: Gexin Xiao - Chengdong Xu - Jinfeng Wang - Dongyang Yang - Li Wang


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