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Many efforts have been made to quickly estimate the maximum runup height of tsunamisassociated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task because of the time it takes to construct an accuratetsunami model using real-time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potentialseismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori. However, such models are generally based onuniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify the knowledge of the earthquake source. Here we showhow to predict tsunami runup from any seismic source model using an analytic solution that is specificallydesigned for subduction zones with a well-defined geometry, i.e., Chile, Japan, Nicaragua, and Alaska. Themain idea of this work is to provide a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for speed. Thesolutions we present for large earthquakes appear promising. Here runup models are computed forthe following: the 1992 Mw 7.7 Nicaragua earthquake, the 2001 Mw 8.4 Perú earthquake, the 2003 Mw 8.3Hokkaido earthquake, the 2007 Mw 8.1 Perú earthquake, the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake, the 2011Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquake. The maximum runupestimations are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 9 m forNicaragua, 8 m for Perú 2001, 32 m for Maule, 41 m for Tohoku, and 4.1 m for Iquique. Considering recentadvances made in the analysis of real-time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of alarge earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform thesecalculations within the first minutes after the occurrence of similar events. Thus, such calculations willprovide faster runup information than is available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases orpast events of premodeled seismic sources.Nota general

Artículo de publicación ISI

Autor: Riquelme Muñoz, Sebastián; - Fuentes Serrano, Mauricio; - Hayes, Gavin P.; - Campos Muñoz, Jaime; -

Fuente: http://repositorio.uchile.cl/


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