Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban areaReport as inadecuate

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Environmental Health

, 15:73

First Online: 11 July 2016Received: 22 February 2016Accepted: 30 June 2016DOI: 10.1186-s12940-016-0164-6

Cite this article as: Stanišić Stojić, S., Stanišić, N. & Stojić, A. Environ Health 2016 15: 73. doi:10.1186-s12940-016-0164-6


BackgroundTo propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data.

ResultsThe analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009–2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between −5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures.

ConclusionsThese results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

KeywordsAir pollution Temperature Mortality Environmental exposure Developing countries Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1186-s12940-016-0164-6 contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Author: Svetlana Stanišić Stojić - Nemanja Stanišić - Andreja Stojić

Source: https://link.springer.com/

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