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Reference: Young, RMB and Read, PL, (2015). Predictability of the thermally-driven laboratory rotating annulus. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, n/a-n/a.Citable link to this page:


Predictability of the thermally-driven laboratory rotating annulus

Abstract: We investigate the predictability of the thermally driven rotating annulus, a laboratory experiment used to study the dynamics of planetary atmospheres under controlled and reproducible conditions. Our approach is to apply the same principles used to predict the atmosphere in operational weather forecasting. We build a forecasting system for the annulus using the analysis correction method for data assimilation, the breeding method for ensemble generation, and the Met Office/Oxford Rotating Annulus Laboratory Simulation as the forecast model. The system forecasts the annulus in steady (2S), amplitude vacillating (3AV), and structurally vacillating (3SV) flow regimes, verifying the forecasts against laboratory data. The results show that a range of flow regimes from this experiment can be accurately predicted. Forecasts in the steady wave flow regime perform well, and are predictable until the end of the available data. Forecasts in the amplitude and structural vacillation flow regimes lose quality and skill by a combination of wave drift and wavenumber transition. Amplitude vacillation is predictable up to several hundred seconds ahead, and structural vacillation is predictable for a few hundred seconds. The wavenumber transitions are partly explained by hysteresis in the rotating annulus experiment and model.

Peer Review status:Peer reviewedPublication status:PublishedVersion:Publisher's version Funder: National Environment Research Council   Notes:© 2015 The Authors.Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Bibliographic Details

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons

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Journal: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Societysee more from them

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Issue Date: 2015-10


Urn: uuid:056d86d8-450b-49af-bf04-7c388cd39ba8

Source identifier: 581611


Issn: 0035-9009 Item Description

Type: Journal article;

Version: Publisher's versionKeywords: rotating annulus predictability breeding vectors data assimilation numerical modelling amplitude vacillation structural vacillation hysteresis Tiny URL: pubs:581611


Autor: Young, RMB - institutionUniversity of Oxford Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics - - - Read, PL - institutionUn



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