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Abstract: We present a mathematical analysis of records drawn from independent randomvariables with a drifting mean. To leading order the change in the record rateis proportional to the ratio of the drift velocity to the standard deviation ofthe underlying distribution. We apply the theory to time series of dailytemperatures for given calendar days, obtained from historical climaterecordings of European and American weather stations as well as re-analysisdata. We conclude that the change in the mean temperature has increased therate of record breaking events in a moderate but significant way: For theEuropean station data covering the time period 1976-2005, we find that about 5of the 17 high temperature records observed on average in 2005 can beattributed to the warming climate.



Autor: Gregor Wergen, Joachim Krug

Fuente: https://arxiv.org/



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