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Reference: Nick Bostrom, (2007). Sleeping beauty and self-location: a hybrid model. Synthese, 157 (1), 59-78.Citable link to this page:


Sleeping beauty and self-location: a hybrid model

Abstract: The Sleeping Beauty problem is test stone for theories about self-locating belief, i.e. theories about how we should reasons when data or theories contain indexical information. Opinion on this problem is split between two camps, those who defend the 1/2 view and those who advocate the 1/3 view. I argue that both these positions are mistaken. Instead, I propose a new hybrid model, which avoids the faults of the standard views while retaining their attractive properties. This model appears to violate Bayesian conditionalization, but I argue that this is not the case. By paying close attention to the details of conditionalization in contexts where indexical information is relevant, we discover that the hybrid model is in fact consistent with Bayesian kinematics. If the proposed model is correct, there are important lessons for the study of self-location, observation selection theory, and anthropic reasoning.

Publication status:PublishedPeer Review status:Peer reviewedVersion:Author's OriginalNotes:The final publication is available at

Bibliographic Details

Publisher: Springer

Publisher Website:

Host: Synthesesee more from them

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Issue Date: 2007-July

Copyright Date: 2006



Issn: 0039-7857

Eissn: 1573-0964

Urn: uuid:44102720-3214-4515-ad86-57aa32c928c7 Item Description

Type: Article: post-print;

Language: en

Version: Author's OriginalKeywords: self-locating belief probability indexical information epistemology sleeping beauty probem anthropic principleSubjects: Philosophy Tiny URL: ora:4105


Autor: Nick Bostrom - institutionUniversity of Oxford facultyHumanities Division - Philosophy Faculty - - - - Bibliographic Details Publ



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