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Reference: Pigott, DM, Golding, N, Mylne, A et al., (2014). Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa. eLife, 3, e04395.Citable link to this page:


Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa.

Abstract: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.

Peer Review status:Peer reviewedPublication status:PublishedVersion:Publisher's version Funder: University Of Oxford   Funder: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation   Funder: Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council   Funder: German Academic Exchange Service   Funder: U.S. National Library of Medicine   Funder: 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (EU FP7)   Funder: Canadian Institutes of Health Research   Funder: Wellcome Trust   Funder: RAPIDD program of the Science and Technology Directorate   Funder: Fogarty International Center   Funder: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases   Funder: Medical Research Council   Notes:Copyright Pigott et al. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

Bibliographic Details

Publisher: eLife Science Publications

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Journal: eLifesee more from them

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Issue Date: 2014-01


Urn: uuid:7648984a-1b17-4eae-b98b-b92a9eefd853

Source identifier: 483866

Eissn: 2050-084X


Issn: 2050-084X Item Description

Type: Journal article;

Language: eng

Version: Publisher's versionKeywords: Animals Chiroptera Primates Humans Zoonoses Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola Primate Diseases Risk Assessment Risk Factors Disease Outbreaks Disease Reservoirs Geography Models, Theoretical Travel Aircraft Africa, Central Africa, Western Ebolavirus Host-Pathogen Interactions Tiny URL: pubs:483866


Autor: Pigott, DM - institutionUniversity of Oxford Oxford, MPLS, Zoology - - - Golding, N - institutionUniversity of Oxford Oxford, MSD



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