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Reference: MacLeod, DA, Cloke, HL, Pappenberger, F et al., (2015). Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, n/a-n/a.Citable link to this page:

 

Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Abstract: Methods to represent uncertainties in weather and climate models explicitly have been developed and refined over the past decade and have reduced biases and improved forecast skill when implemented in the atmospheric component of models. These methods have not yet been applied to the land-surface component of models. Since the land surface is strongly coupled to the atmospheric state at certain times and in certain places (such as the European summer of 2003), improvements in the representation of land-surface uncertainty may potentially lead to improvements in atmospheric forecasts for such events.Here we analyze seasonal retrospective forecasts for 1981–2012 performed with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) coupled ensemble forecast model. We consider two methods of incorporating uncertainty into the land-surface model (H-TESSEL): stochastic perturbation of tendencies and static perturbation of key soil parameters.We find that the perturbed parameter approach improves the forecast of extreme air temperature for summer 2003 considerably, through better representation of negative soil-moisture anomalies and upward sensible heat flux. Averaged across all the reforecasts, the perturbed parameter experiment shows relatively little impact on the mean bias, suggesting perturbations of at least this magnitude can be applied to the land surface without any degradation of model climate. There is also little impact on skill averaged across all reforecasts and some evidence of overdispersion for soil moisture.The stochastic tendency experiments show a large overdispersion for the soil temperature fields, indicating that the perturbation here is too strong. There is also some indication that the forecast of the 2003 warm event is improved for the stochastic experiments; however, the improvement is not as large as observed for the perturbed parameter experiment.

Peer Review status:Peer reviewedPublication status:PublishedVersion:Publisher's versionNotes:Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Bibliographic Details

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Ltd

Publisher Website: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/

Journal: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Societysee more from them

Publication Website: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1477-870X

Issue Date: 2015

pages:n/a-n/aIdentifiers

Urn: uuid:af62e47e-ce22-4689-93f3-45144464f7b7

Source identifier: 567576

Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2631

Issn: 0035-9009 Item Description

Type: Journal article;

Version: Publisher's versionKeywords: seasonal climate climate models forecasting uncertainty land surface Tiny URL: pubs:567576

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Autor: MacLeod, DA - institutionUniversity of Oxford Oxford, MPLS, Physics, Atmos Ocean and Planet Physics grantNumberSPECS grant agreem

Fuente: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:af62e47e-ce22-4689-93f3-45144464f7b7



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