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Reference: Pillar, HR, Heimbach, P, Johnson, HL et al., (2016). Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning. Journal of Climate, 29 (9), 3339-3352.Citable link to this page:


Dynamical attribution of recent variability in Atlantic overturning

Abstract: Attributing observed variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to past changes in surface forcing is challenging but essential for detecting any influence of anthropogenic forcing and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, quantitative estimates of separate contributions from wind and buoyancy forcing to AMOC variations at 25°N are obtained. These estimates are achieved by projecting observed atmospheric anomalies onto model-based dynamical patterns of AMOC sensitivity to surface wind, thermal, and freshwater forcing over the preceding 15 years. Local wind forcing is shown to dominate AMOC variability on short time scales, whereas subpolar heat fluxes dominate on decadal time scales. The reconstructed transport time series successfully reproduces most of the interannual variability observed by RAPID–MOCHA. However, the apparent decadal trend in the RAPID–MOCHA time series is not captured, requiring improved model representation of ocean adjustment to subpolar heat fluxes over at least the past two decades and highlighting the importance of sustained monitoring of the high-latitude North Atlantic.

Peer Review status:Peer reviewedPublication status:PublishedVersion:Publisher's version Funder: Natural Environment Research Council   Funder: Met Office   Notes:© 2016 American Meteorological Society. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license.

Bibliographic Details

Publisher: American Meteorological Society

Publisher Website: http://www.ametsoc.org/

Journal: Journal of Climatesee more from them

Publication Website: https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/journals/journal-of-climate/

Issue Date: 2016-04-22


Urn: uuid:f687b12b-5a59-45d6-98d7-857d1445f069

Source identifier: 623197

Eissn: 1520-0442

Doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0727.1

Issn: 0894-8755 Item Description

Type: Journal article;

Version: Publisher's versionKeywords: Circulation/ Dynamics Atmosphere-ocean interaction Dynamics Mass fluxes/transport Meridional overturning circulation Ocean circulation Ocean dynamics Tiny URL: pubs:623197


Author: Pillar, HR - institutionUniversity of Oxford Oxford, MPLS, Earth Sciences grantNumberPhysical Oceanography program grantNumberCli

Source: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:f687b12b-5a59-45d6-98d7-857d1445f069


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